A week of paper, scored honestly.

Only settled trades on real Polymarket markets count here. Simulated windows are priced with a built-in bias so the desk has something to rehearse on, so they never enter the record. Fills use the ask plus your slippage and a fee, and positions settle only when Polymarket reports a resolution.

Trial clock

—

Settled trades

0 official resolutions

Net P&L

—

Win rate

—

Equity and drawdown · paper

Equity builds up as the desk runs

Cumulative P&L per settled trade

Needs two settled trades

Calibration: model vs what happened

Needs more official settlements

Dots on the dashed line mean the model’s 70% really wins 70% of the time. Dots far from it mean overconfidence.

Live eligibility

Not yet

Passing means the paper record does not rule the idea out. It is not proof of an edge, and live fills will be worse than paper fills.

Model trust (learned from your own settled trades)

50%

The desk never trades the raw model. It trades the market price plus this share of the model's disagreement with it. Still on the starting value of 50%: it needs 40 settled real windows to learn (0 so far).

Where the results come from

Only segments with 20+ trades are judged. A segment marked losing has an average result below zero even after allowing for luck. Do not tune the strategy on small segments, they flip back and forth.

By side

No data yet.

By edge size at entry

No data yet.

By window

No data yet.

By time to expiry at entry

No data yet.

Context signals

World Monitor: off

Waiting for the first context refresh. Context can shrink stake or block a trade; it never creates one. Its effect on probabilities is capped at ±2 points, off unless enabled, and scored separately above.

No related markets loaded yet.

Recent settled trades

No settled trades yet.

Start over

Clears the paper book, scores, and trial clock. Limits, mode, and live setup are kept. Do this after you change the model so old results do not flatter the new version.

Paper-first research desk. Live orders are off unless you configure, pass the trial gate, and arm them. No custody, no promised win rate. Deposits and withdrawals stay on Polymarket.